World cups in one line....

If I were to summarize each world cup in just one line ....

1975 - World still warming up to ODIs ; Clive Lloyd gets it better than them all
1979 - Clive Lloyd and the pack still leagues ahead
1983 - Windies still on the top and then Kapil Dev takes an unbelievable catch to dismiss Richards
1992 - New Zealand blaze their way through the tournament and then, Inzamam -ul- Haq happened
1996 - Sachin carries India through the tournament and then Eden Gardens happened
1999 - Gibbs drops the catch ; Donald drops his brain ; SA drop the cup
2003 - Ganguly's bunch to finals with aggression, a bit excess of it when Zaheer gives away 15
2007 - India out of the cup early ; Pepsi lost tons of money ; No one in India remembers
2011 - Dhoni stands and delivers
2015 - .....

Why Lebron wont win any more championships

Don't get me wrong - i dont hate Lebron; he is the best player in the league. But I don't think he is a great leader or a sportsman as he is made out to be. He will not be a Jordan. It is very unlikely he will win more championships.

All the drama around his "Im coming home" campaign is good business from the NBA perspective. They managed to keep fans engaged even during the summer break and what better opportunity than a year full of big trades.

Coming back to the subject :

1. Lebron's move is driven by money. Period. The core issue at Miami was pay - with Bosh and Wade due for higher pay cheques, there was little room for a new entrant. But then, weren't the big three supposed to be enough? Cant they be the leaders grooming the next generation of players rather than looking for another star? Jordan trusted a team that had players who were far inferior (he was that good!) and displayed the leadership that got them the success. In the case of Miami, if James hadn't stuck by his need for a max contract which would corner Bosh and Wade excessively, they could have carried on their quest. For a team that made 4 consecutive finals with a repeat, it wouldn't have needed massive re building. In any case, we are talking about a potential $ 4-5mn gap in his annual pay -for a guy who makes a lot more through endorsements this gap shouldn't matter - IF winning championships is as important to him as he claims it is.
2. If he did love home so much, he would have stuck by the team and the management in 2010 and gotten other stars to play with him in Cleveland. He wouldn't have left the way he did in 2010, and well, even in 2014, he hasnt changed much. If Miami had agreed to a max contract with Bosh and Wade taking a cut, Lebron would have stayed. So, the "coming home" part is just a hogwash. Jordan stuck by Chicago through all the ups and downs. Kobe and Duncan did too with their teams. Durant seems to be evolving into an inspiring leader as well. Infact, Dwayne Wade should get a lot of credit for accommodating Lebron into Miami and choosing to play the support cast - at a city where had a won a championship already and was the franchise leader. He truly did want to win more championships than just seek individual glory.
3. Basketball is a team sport. No team better than Spurs to underline that fact. San Antonio as a system is so good that they turn the average players into superstars - hence the deep bench that can deliver. 
4. He has just become smarter at handling the media and deflecting the attention through an essay. The mere fact that he had to write one, justifying his move to the world, meant that he wanted to contain the back lash. He probably employed professionals to craft his PR angle and come up with the "Im coming home" campaign. It is well played - who can possibly badmouth someone who claims to love home so much that he wants to give Cleveland their first championship, how benevolent of him.
5. Cleveland had started well with Kyrie Irving's addition to the roster. They were better off building the team with a big guy at the center and another star forward player. Kyrie could have led them to glory. With Lebron coming back, the attention will move back to creating plays around him and the team becomes very beatable - as they were between 2003-10.

Bottomline - There is nothing wrong with the quest for a max contract or moving back home. But he will never be a great leader and a sportsman like Jordan.

Flash Boys

Just finished reading the latest work by Michael Lewis - lived up to the expectation.

Wallstreet jocks continue to be at it - wonder if there is ever an end ..probably not. We will continue to see "innovations" that will be in the "interest of the client" while the regulators are always trying to catch up. Occasionally, the "principled" characters expose the dirty linen but the institutional linkage with the government will keep the ball rolling.

While the world was reeling in the GFC, the HFT guys were having(continue to) a party. In the same vein, as the investors now realize the deal of microseconds, I wonder what's the new play being employed. The smart brains i'm sure have concocted the next game-changer working around the regulations.

Thomas Pikkety and Taleb in the queue next - former an electronic version and latter the paper. Think i'll go with the latter.

"Songs stuck in the head"

An earworm, sometimes known as a brainworm,[1] is a catchy piece of music that continually repeats through a person's mind after it is no longer playing.[2] Phrases used to describe an earworm include musical imagery repetition, involuntary musical imagery, and stuck song syndrome.

Happens with most of us...at least for people like me who are highly distracted. From last evening, that bloody "paani paani" Honey Singh song is stuck in my head(ok don't judge me, or, you know what, go right ahead!) and I am getting pissed off!

Couldn't get rid of it during an exec meeting today...have struggled through this problem as a student during exams - especially when i was trying to solve a problem. I will confess that earworms have troubled me even during interviews!

Eight tracks that have earworm'ed me the most (dare not list more with the risk of enduring them again)

1) "Call me maybe"
2) "Lungi Dance" (Bollywood)
3) "Who let the dogs out"
4) "Gangnam style"
5) "Baby doll" (Bollywood)
6) "Happy"
7) "Titanium"
8) "Paani paani" (bollywood)

How does one get rid of earworms - apparently by taking up a task that engages your brain for a level of challenge. But the trick is to not pick up something too complex, allowing the tune to make it's way back in to your head. Solving anagrams is supposed to help . Alternatively scientists claim, it helps to find a place where one can sing the song loudly - I don't think this will help or is even possible in most of our daily lives!

I'm experimenting with posting a blog in the middle of work - hope this works!


(Think it just did....)

Indian Elections!

A single party with absolute majority - first time in the last 30 years. Goodbye to coalition politics, compromises, divisive agendas. All the past governments were focussed on holding on to their seats rather than focus on delivering the mandate.

Why does the outcome make a difference

1) India was on the cusp of a civil break down - maybe an extreme view - but the frustration of the people was crossing the tipping point. I am glad that the faith in the democratic system is restored and the country can still hope for a change. Now it is up to Modi to deliver - not an easy task considering the mess that the previous rulers have left behind.

2) End of  dominance of the first family and an uninspiring leadership. This will set the tone for the coming years, not just this election but in future as well

3) Hope is a big thing - and that's precisely what the elections have brought back to the country. Hope can go a long way in turning things around and rooting out corruption.

4) Restoration of the trust deficit - which has seeped into all layers of the society. It will take a while to be restored ; we may still need to pay bribes to register our assets, we may still see power cuts due to inefficient planning, we may still see bad infrastructure - but we will be patient this time around because we hope that all of this will change in the visible future.

5) Calling out of the "Aap" tards - They should have delivered in Delhi before going national.  They have played with the trust of the nation who saw a glimmer of hope when they came to power.

Now what next

1) Stoking the economy towards growth - the markets have clearly shown their support. Will have to see how long this will hold. It is paramount that inflation is reigned in and reforms are brought in multiple sectors. Demonstrated value add and exits will bring back a lot of investments to the table. Red tape clearance across the country will take a while - but this is where the absolute majority helps as the government no longer needs to turn a blind eye in some states.

2) Can the Gujarat model be replicated around the country - eagerly waiting to see how this will turn out. I have personally not visited Gujarat but going by the opinions published, it is clear that the state has transformed. Infrastructure around the country needs a huge boost - quick clearances, decisions and project completions are the need of the hour.

3) Foreign relations - I am not an extremist, but i believe that the nation has needed an authoritative leader who will not be messed around with. It is important that the neighbouring states as well as China and the US do not view the leader of India as a puppet (as was the case in the last decade), but a leader who will react in the interests of the country.

4) Good governance - I have friends who have joined the public services (IAS/IPS/IRS etc) and i know these guys are amongst the smartest and the most capable. I hope that the new government will recognize the capability and allow them the freedom to bring in the transformation. I was glad to hear Modi's pitch on delegation and team work. Leave it to these smart guys and they will deliver.

5)Inclusive growth - This indeed is the biggest challenge facing Modi. Vajpayee government lost out in spite of good performance because the majority of the "voting class" felt otherwise. Performance of the incumbent government has been so poor in the past few years, i wonder if any class of the society has been spared of frustrations. Biggest contributor being the inflation and meteoric rise in the cost of daily food. Dal (Lentils) at Rs 95 (2$)/kg , Onions at Rs 60 (1$)/kg and rice (don't remember the price points), but these essentials for an indian household had gone by up by almost 40-50% which derails the household economics. Modi's government will have to ensure that all the crappy dole outs in the name of "mnrega" or whatever are reviewed strictly and the objective is oriented towards moving people out of poverty.

In summary - faith has been restored in the system.

The last time i saw the country in joy was during the 2011 World cup victory. It's that same feeling again today.

Hope they just don't mess it up now!

Cheers to India!

NBA 2014 predictions

Trying to make a call sooner this year on what I see will be the outcome of the playoffs.

Given that a lot of teams are still hovering around the 7-8-9 position, the team names might change, but i really dont see any of those teams making a championship run.

Eastern Division -

East has the lopsided set of rankings, where the no.8 position has a 44.7% win percentage as against the more balanced western division, where the equivalent has a win rate of 60%. Says a lot about the quality of teams in the west.

Nevertheless -

Round 1:

Miami - Atlanta : 4-0 win for Miami
Indiana - Charlotte : 4-1 win for Indiana
Toronto - Washington : 4-2 win for Toronto  (this will be an interesting series with two high flying point guards)
Chicago - Brooklyn: 4-3 win for Chicago (expect a total slug fest here, both teams play hard. Expect a few T's in this series)

Round 2:
Miami-Chicago : 4-2 win for Miami (recap of the series last year....famed rivalry will motivate Noah to have a go at the Heat team)
Indiana - Toronto : 4-2 win for Indiana

Conference Final :
Miami - Indiana : 4-3 win for Miami (this is a recap of the last year, but i still give the edge to Miami given that Lebron continues to dominate the game)

Western Division -

Most of the teams I have liked to follow in the past have been from this division and it still continues to be a formidable bunch of teams.Really hoped Minnesota to do much better, but Kevin Love alone cannot get it done. Coming back to the playoffs

Round 1 :

San Antonio-Phoenix : 4-0 win for San Antonio (clinical play by Spurs)
OKC - Dallas : 4-1 win for OKC
Clippers - Golden State : 4-3 win for Clips (this will be a hard fought series, but I give the edge to Blake Griffin and Doc rivers)
Houston - Portland : 4-3 win for Portland ( this series can go either way and a lot will depend on the health of Dwight Howard. The blazers started the season very well and have it in them to get past the rockets)

Round 2:
San Antonio - Portland : 4-2 win for San Antonio (the blazers will grind it out and may even push it to a 7 game series)
OKC - Clippers : 4-2 win for OKC (Clips cant stop Durant who is back to being unstoppable)

Conference finals :

San Antonio - OKC : 4-3 win for San Antonio (OKC will make the spurs work very hard with their athleticism. It will boil down to the SA defense and Kawhi Leonard guarding KD. This is a rematch of the conference finals two years ago, except that OKC still had Harden with them then)

NBA Finals :
San Antonio - Miami - Rematch of the 2013 series. This can again go either way as it did the last year. San Antonio had almost won game 6 and the championship, but then such is the beauty of the game. Ray Allen got a lucky pass and then the rest is history.

I cant make a prediction on the finals, but I truly want San Antonio to win this series because they have it in them. Popovich and the trio deserve another crown and I will only cheer for them.

Redbus

Truly impressive story. As Mahesh Murthy puts it "no iit/iim whiz kids", just a bunch of people willing to work hard and create "Value" (such an over-used word, especially by us MBA's).

Why am I happy about the story

1) Demonstrates to all aspiring entrepreneurs that it is all about identifying a problem and solving it with passion. Yes, you need investment to support your livelihood when the company is not generating revenues, but the focus is not just on multiples. I dont think the founder team ever aimed only for a sell-out/listing. Dont drink the start-up koolaid; just identify a problem and focus on solving it.

2) Success stories are good for the ecosystem. Bangalore has always been panned for being just a back office for IT Services and not being the right comparison to silicon valley. Stories like redbus (and of course inmobi/flipkart etc) help create more positive energy in the city

3) And of course the financial returns; the ESOPs im sure have been effective and the team members can pride themselves in getting what they deserved for taking a risk and believing in making an impact on people's lives.